Open Topic Sunday ... Debate--Iran, Part Five
Not that I'm going to incite further debate on the subject, but after reading both sides presented I just felt a need to throw my two cents worth on this subject into the kitty.
Both ladies make a solid argument. Marcie is right to have a level of concern regarding the Strait of Hormuz issue. I watched the debate she had over that last night, and I also should remind our readers that this was a topic her and I discussed on Friday. It is a key point regarding the issue at hand; that being Iran. The possibility of Iran shutting down the strait is one that should be, and probably has been, considered by the administration. Of course, Iran has threatened a lot of things if the UNSC votes for sanctions and accountability. There is an unconfrimed rumor that Iran has taken approximately 150 "hostages" amongst their citizens, and will execute them if the UNSC votes against them. There is also the threat of "hurting" the US in terms of oil production, which may have much to do with the strait itself.
Sabrina, on the other hand makes solid points regarding the minimal damage done in refusing to allow Dubai Ports to have their contract; a legally binding one that they would have virtually inherited from Penninsular and Oriental, the London firm they just bought out. True that the damage may be minimal, but some major league behind-the-scenes butt -kissing might be in order to ensure that the UAE will back up the United States in the strait. Sabrina touches on the one thing that will likely serve as the tipping point in the whole issue: Money.
In 1997, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Maleki stated that Iran supported the free flow of oil through the strait. Forty percent of the world's oil flows through the strait every day, which is of great importance not only to Iran, but to Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE. The map that the link will take readers to is one showing where the strait lies, and the nations affected by an Iranian shut down of the Strait of Hormuz.
To ease the fears on either side, let's just imagine how quickly nations would rally to our side should Iran shut down the strait. It could prove to be quite suicidal in doing so. OPEC has each of the nations in question as members. Substantial pressure would be levied against Iran should they opt to escalate their already looming situation by shutting off shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. And, as Sabrina pointed out, they would also lose out in the situation, as well. If Iran thinks they can shut down the strait and still send their ships out, they should think again. We would blockade them in until they lifted their own blockade.
In short, escalating the situation that is upon a knife's edge in the Middle East would not be beneficial for any involved, especially Iran. Instead of rallying nations to their cause, should they decide that a shut down of the strait was necessary to make their point, they would become an extremely disliked entity in the region, and would risk losing any support they might have garnered up to now.
As I said, both ladies made their points, and made them well. In the end I doubt Iran would take such a step. Doing so risks retaliations that I'm sure they're prepared to handle.
Publius II
Not that I'm going to incite further debate on the subject, but after reading both sides presented I just felt a need to throw my two cents worth on this subject into the kitty.
Both ladies make a solid argument. Marcie is right to have a level of concern regarding the Strait of Hormuz issue. I watched the debate she had over that last night, and I also should remind our readers that this was a topic her and I discussed on Friday. It is a key point regarding the issue at hand; that being Iran. The possibility of Iran shutting down the strait is one that should be, and probably has been, considered by the administration. Of course, Iran has threatened a lot of things if the UNSC votes for sanctions and accountability. There is an unconfrimed rumor that Iran has taken approximately 150 "hostages" amongst their citizens, and will execute them if the UNSC votes against them. There is also the threat of "hurting" the US in terms of oil production, which may have much to do with the strait itself.
Sabrina, on the other hand makes solid points regarding the minimal damage done in refusing to allow Dubai Ports to have their contract; a legally binding one that they would have virtually inherited from Penninsular and Oriental, the London firm they just bought out. True that the damage may be minimal, but some major league behind-the-scenes butt -kissing might be in order to ensure that the UAE will back up the United States in the strait. Sabrina touches on the one thing that will likely serve as the tipping point in the whole issue: Money.
In 1997, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Maleki stated that Iran supported the free flow of oil through the strait. Forty percent of the world's oil flows through the strait every day, which is of great importance not only to Iran, but to Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE. The map that the link will take readers to is one showing where the strait lies, and the nations affected by an Iranian shut down of the Strait of Hormuz.
To ease the fears on either side, let's just imagine how quickly nations would rally to our side should Iran shut down the strait. It could prove to be quite suicidal in doing so. OPEC has each of the nations in question as members. Substantial pressure would be levied against Iran should they opt to escalate their already looming situation by shutting off shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. And, as Sabrina pointed out, they would also lose out in the situation, as well. If Iran thinks they can shut down the strait and still send their ships out, they should think again. We would blockade them in until they lifted their own blockade.
In short, escalating the situation that is upon a knife's edge in the Middle East would not be beneficial for any involved, especially Iran. Instead of rallying nations to their cause, should they decide that a shut down of the strait was necessary to make their point, they would become an extremely disliked entity in the region, and would risk losing any support they might have garnered up to now.
As I said, both ladies made their points, and made them well. In the end I doubt Iran would take such a step. Doing so risks retaliations that I'm sure they're prepared to handle.
Publius II
posted by Syd And Vaughn | 11:43 PM
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