J-Pod On Hillary: Geraghtyite Wisdom The Base Should Pay Attention To
John Podhoretz has just finished writing a new book called Can She Be Stopped. The "she" in question would be Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton. There is no doubt in anyone's mind regarding her ambitions to win the Oval Office. The date matters not as she can be equally as potent in 2008 or 2012. But Mr. Podhoretz has some wisdom today at the The Corner that mayu help the base better understand the problem that faces us in the coming years.
In my book, Can She Be Stopped?, I specifically warn Republicans and conservatives about the temptation to listen to the "siren song of schism" — the notion that they would be better off casting a protest or third-party vote in 2008. Such a vote, no matter how principled it might seem, would have only one result, and that is to elect Hillary Clinton. It is a default vote for Hillary Clinton. I wrote those words in October 2005, but I did not anticipate the degree to which they might be true only weeks after the publication of my book in 2006. Today,Peggy Noonan offers the first sustained version of the siren song of schism almost to the note.
Even though she suggests those who might join a third party would come from both sides of the aisle, any cold-eyed observer of political trends would have to look at the correlation of forces at the moment and determine that there is no earthly reason why a resurgent Democratic Party, a party that managed to drum up 59 million votes for John Kerry of all people in 2004, would actually lose votes and voters between now and then — especially since it has the ability to blame all the woes of the world on the GOP. The notion of a vital and successful third party is a pipe dream. We've existed with the two parties we have through the Civil War, major depressions in the 1890s and 1930s, world wars, Vietnam and the civil-rights era. They will be with us for a long time still.
If people cannot stomach voting Republican and need to cast a protest vote, that is their right. But nobody should be under any illusions about what it means. It means Democratic rule.
Let me be clear on this. 2004 marked the first year I was able to vote. Fresh out of high school, and still "wet behind the ears" when it came to the realm of politics. I had done my research, looked at all the candidates, and made my choice. I should note that while the third-party candidates might have had a few decent ideas, the simple fact of the matter was that no third-party candidate in the last thirty years ever garnered more than 1 or 2 percent of the total votes cast, and they never (again, to my knowledge) came close to taking 1% of the electoral votes. (Going back through records shows the last time a third-party candidate received an electoral vote was in 1972, and the vote went for John Hospers, the Libertarian from California.)
The idea that people will toss either or both parties and jump on a third-party bandwagon is a pipe dream. We are too dead set in our ways, and comfortable with our parties. We may not be happy with them all the time (if we were, life would be boring), but we refuse to give up hope. In 2008, the way to go is not a third-party jump. We should dig in, and prepare for the fight that will come from this woman. IF she does run in 2008, she will be a formidable candidate. She will fight just as mean and nasty as the worst political machines of the past ever had. At that point, she has nothing to lose, everything to gain, and she will roll the dice.
The Republican base needs to follow one of the primary lessons in J-Pod's book. QUIT ATTACKING THIS WOMAN. It is one thing to be critical. It is another to launch personal attacks that are founded more on rumor and innuendo than fact. Right now there are people on the Left who really do not like Hillary because of the moderation she is trying to manipulate. The more she is attacked, the more we will drive those people into her camp. Divide and conquer, ladies and gentlemen, should be our modus operandi in 2008. There are those who are backing Al Gore and John Kerry for their second attempts (if they choose to run), and that will clearly divide the Democrat base all on its own.
I know there are a lot of people out there who literally do hate Hillary. Though I do not understand the "hate" part of the argument (as "hate" is a strong word that I try to use sparingly) I can understand the distrust and dislike. I can relate. I cannot see myself falling head over heels for her, and mostly because there are severe and distinct ideological differences between her and I.
She is clearly a socialist. I cannot embrace that sort of ideology.
But for those thinking that the protest vote will work in 2008, think again. It will not. It will backfire on the party and the nation. We are light-years ahead of the Democrats in terms of candidates in 2008, and both Thomas and I consider George Allen and Rudy Giuliani to be the main front-runners. (And yes, we are hoping for Allen.) Meanwhile, the best the Democrats can muster are two losers, and a woman Hell-bent on returning to the White House, only this time she would be in the venerable cat-bird seat. Not a pleasent prospect for the future at all, and that will be the future should the Republican base file protest votes in 2008.
The Bunny ;)
John Podhoretz has just finished writing a new book called Can She Be Stopped. The "she" in question would be Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton. There is no doubt in anyone's mind regarding her ambitions to win the Oval Office. The date matters not as she can be equally as potent in 2008 or 2012. But Mr. Podhoretz has some wisdom today at the The Corner that mayu help the base better understand the problem that faces us in the coming years.
In my book, Can She Be Stopped?, I specifically warn Republicans and conservatives about the temptation to listen to the "siren song of schism" — the notion that they would be better off casting a protest or third-party vote in 2008. Such a vote, no matter how principled it might seem, would have only one result, and that is to elect Hillary Clinton. It is a default vote for Hillary Clinton. I wrote those words in October 2005, but I did not anticipate the degree to which they might be true only weeks after the publication of my book in 2006. Today,Peggy Noonan offers the first sustained version of the siren song of schism almost to the note.
Even though she suggests those who might join a third party would come from both sides of the aisle, any cold-eyed observer of political trends would have to look at the correlation of forces at the moment and determine that there is no earthly reason why a resurgent Democratic Party, a party that managed to drum up 59 million votes for John Kerry of all people in 2004, would actually lose votes and voters between now and then — especially since it has the ability to blame all the woes of the world on the GOP. The notion of a vital and successful third party is a pipe dream. We've existed with the two parties we have through the Civil War, major depressions in the 1890s and 1930s, world wars, Vietnam and the civil-rights era. They will be with us for a long time still.
If people cannot stomach voting Republican and need to cast a protest vote, that is their right. But nobody should be under any illusions about what it means. It means Democratic rule.
Let me be clear on this. 2004 marked the first year I was able to vote. Fresh out of high school, and still "wet behind the ears" when it came to the realm of politics. I had done my research, looked at all the candidates, and made my choice. I should note that while the third-party candidates might have had a few decent ideas, the simple fact of the matter was that no third-party candidate in the last thirty years ever garnered more than 1 or 2 percent of the total votes cast, and they never (again, to my knowledge) came close to taking 1% of the electoral votes. (Going back through records shows the last time a third-party candidate received an electoral vote was in 1972, and the vote went for John Hospers, the Libertarian from California.)
The idea that people will toss either or both parties and jump on a third-party bandwagon is a pipe dream. We are too dead set in our ways, and comfortable with our parties. We may not be happy with them all the time (if we were, life would be boring), but we refuse to give up hope. In 2008, the way to go is not a third-party jump. We should dig in, and prepare for the fight that will come from this woman. IF she does run in 2008, she will be a formidable candidate. She will fight just as mean and nasty as the worst political machines of the past ever had. At that point, she has nothing to lose, everything to gain, and she will roll the dice.
The Republican base needs to follow one of the primary lessons in J-Pod's book. QUIT ATTACKING THIS WOMAN. It is one thing to be critical. It is another to launch personal attacks that are founded more on rumor and innuendo than fact. Right now there are people on the Left who really do not like Hillary because of the moderation she is trying to manipulate. The more she is attacked, the more we will drive those people into her camp. Divide and conquer, ladies and gentlemen, should be our modus operandi in 2008. There are those who are backing Al Gore and John Kerry for their second attempts (if they choose to run), and that will clearly divide the Democrat base all on its own.
I know there are a lot of people out there who literally do hate Hillary. Though I do not understand the "hate" part of the argument (as "hate" is a strong word that I try to use sparingly) I can understand the distrust and dislike. I can relate. I cannot see myself falling head over heels for her, and mostly because there are severe and distinct ideological differences between her and I.
She is clearly a socialist. I cannot embrace that sort of ideology.
But for those thinking that the protest vote will work in 2008, think again. It will not. It will backfire on the party and the nation. We are light-years ahead of the Democrats in terms of candidates in 2008, and both Thomas and I consider George Allen and Rudy Giuliani to be the main front-runners. (And yes, we are hoping for Allen.) Meanwhile, the best the Democrats can muster are two losers, and a woman Hell-bent on returning to the White House, only this time she would be in the venerable cat-bird seat. Not a pleasent prospect for the future at all, and that will be the future should the Republican base file protest votes in 2008.
The Bunny ;)
posted by Syd And Vaughn | 10:05 AM
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