The American Research Group's polling numbers are in for April. These numbers are for Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, and as Hugh Hewitt observes this morning Rudy's ride may be just about over:
Here's the Iowa poll from ARG. Rudy has dropped 9% to 19% in five months, McCain has stayed the same at 26%, Fred Thompson is at 13%, a 1% increase since ARG first added his name, and Romney is at 14%, up 8% in the past 5 months.
Here's the ARG numbers for New Hampshire: Rudy has declined from 25% to 17% in five months; McCain has stayed at 29%, though he dipped and recovered in the period; Romney has gone from 9% to 24%; and Fred Thompson debuted at 10% last month but fell to 7% in April.
In South Carolina the data is only three months old: Rudy has dipped from 28% to 23%; McCain opened at 35% and moved up 1% over the three polls. Romney is at 6% up one tick over the three polls, and Thompson opened at 10%.
Rudy is dropping in the polls, though aside from the reported then corrected gaffe about his wife sitting in on Cabinet meetings, there has been nothing serious to hurt his standings. The only possibility we can come up with is the inclusion of Fred Thompson in the polling.
Fred's debut is an interesting one. It appears that his numbers come from two sources: Bleeding both Rudy and the "also rans." We knew this would happen, and while we expected him to take a bit away from McCain in the early goings, he is still taking from those we expected. This should show people that his "buzz" is not artificial.
Mitt's surging, and he also seems to be taking from Rudy a bit. Of course with a ship-shape fundraising machine, and a couple of really good campaign stops it's no wonder why he has jumped in the polling. Many may see him as "boring," many others are starting to see him as a viable, intelligent, and articulate option over Rudy or McCain.
Which brings us now to John McCain. In this poll for all three states, McCain leads all Republicans. With the disdain that he has throughout the base, this baffles us. We can only chalk this up to social conservatives that see something in him that the rest of the base does not. The majority of people we speak with -- both in Arizona, and elsewhere in the United States -- dislike John McCain, and feel he has sold his party out for the accolades of the press, and center-Left constituents. Either the people involved in this poll are blind to his ambitions, and what he believes is "right" for this nation, or they simply have short memories.
The polling data looks good for all involved excpet the "also rans." Even Rudy's numbers, while they have dipped a bit, are still good and appear solid. What do the obverall numbers tell us? That this is going to be a long race, and each of the four candidates have their strong and weak points. Because this is the first poll to include Fred Thompson, it is difficult to see what sort of a serious impact he has. But Hugh points out that Rudy's drop is significant -- 22 points overall. Mitt has surged the same amount, but both will likely be there when the race comes to it's close next year.
Hugh also points out that the first serious debate amongst the candidates is taking place tomorrow at the Reagan Library, and that Politico will be hosting it along with MSNBC. They are taking question submissions, and allowing online voting for the best questions to present to the candidates. This should be a good debate, and I know we will be watching it unfold.
Marcie
Here's the Iowa poll from ARG. Rudy has dropped 9% to 19% in five months, McCain has stayed the same at 26%, Fred Thompson is at 13%, a 1% increase since ARG first added his name, and Romney is at 14%, up 8% in the past 5 months.
Here's the ARG numbers for New Hampshire: Rudy has declined from 25% to 17% in five months; McCain has stayed at 29%, though he dipped and recovered in the period; Romney has gone from 9% to 24%; and Fred Thompson debuted at 10% last month but fell to 7% in April.
In South Carolina the data is only three months old: Rudy has dipped from 28% to 23%; McCain opened at 35% and moved up 1% over the three polls. Romney is at 6% up one tick over the three polls, and Thompson opened at 10%.
Rudy is dropping in the polls, though aside from the reported then corrected gaffe about his wife sitting in on Cabinet meetings, there has been nothing serious to hurt his standings. The only possibility we can come up with is the inclusion of Fred Thompson in the polling.
Fred's debut is an interesting one. It appears that his numbers come from two sources: Bleeding both Rudy and the "also rans." We knew this would happen, and while we expected him to take a bit away from McCain in the early goings, he is still taking from those we expected. This should show people that his "buzz" is not artificial.
Mitt's surging, and he also seems to be taking from Rudy a bit. Of course with a ship-shape fundraising machine, and a couple of really good campaign stops it's no wonder why he has jumped in the polling. Many may see him as "boring," many others are starting to see him as a viable, intelligent, and articulate option over Rudy or McCain.
Which brings us now to John McCain. In this poll for all three states, McCain leads all Republicans. With the disdain that he has throughout the base, this baffles us. We can only chalk this up to social conservatives that see something in him that the rest of the base does not. The majority of people we speak with -- both in Arizona, and elsewhere in the United States -- dislike John McCain, and feel he has sold his party out for the accolades of the press, and center-Left constituents. Either the people involved in this poll are blind to his ambitions, and what he believes is "right" for this nation, or they simply have short memories.
The polling data looks good for all involved excpet the "also rans." Even Rudy's numbers, while they have dipped a bit, are still good and appear solid. What do the obverall numbers tell us? That this is going to be a long race, and each of the four candidates have their strong and weak points. Because this is the first poll to include Fred Thompson, it is difficult to see what sort of a serious impact he has. But Hugh points out that Rudy's drop is significant -- 22 points overall. Mitt has surged the same amount, but both will likely be there when the race comes to it's close next year.
Hugh also points out that the first serious debate amongst the candidates is taking place tomorrow at the Reagan Library, and that Politico will be hosting it along with MSNBC. They are taking question submissions, and allowing online voting for the best questions to present to the candidates. This should be a good debate, and I know we will be watching it unfold.
Marcie
posted by Syd And Vaughn | 7:14 AM
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