Running The Scenarios: A Rogue Nuclear Attack
The New York Times put this story up this morning. Let me state, for the record, that while we dislike the MSM--especially both cage-liner. coastal Times--that this story is important. REMEMBER this story, and REMEMBER the Democrats during the State of the Union speech.
The Pentagon has formed a team of nuclear experts to analyze the fallout from a terrorist nuclear attack on American soil in an effort to identify the attackers, officials have said.
The team, which can draw on hundreds of federal experts, uses such tools as robots that gather radioactive debris and sensitive gear to detect the origins of a device, whether a true atomic weapon or a so-called dirty bomb, that uses ordinary explosives to spew radioactivity.
The objective is to determine quickly who exploded the device and where it came from, in part to clarify the options to strike back, the officials said. The government also hopes that terrorists will be less likely to use a nuclear device if they know that it can be traced.
Michael K. Evenson, associate director for operations at the Pentagon's Defense Threat Reduction Agency, which directs the team, said the program began operating last year. In federal parlance, the team conducts domestic nuclear event attribution, informally post-event forensics.
"I'm very confident we can achieve what we set out to do," Mr. Evenson said in an interview. "We've started, and intend to continue, an exercise and evaluation program so this doesn't fall into atrophy."
Today, Mr. Evenson is to speak about the detective work at a conference in Arlington, Va., sponsored by the Institute for Defense and Government Advancement, a company that runs military meetings. Officials said the talk would be the first time a federal official has publicly spoken about the program.
News reports have described scientific research conducted by the Pentagon and other federal agencies on discovering the origins of nuclear materials and devices. But the fact that the government is able to field organized teams to respond to an attack has not been reported.
Mr. Evenson said a secret presidential directive, "National Strategy to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction," signed in September 2002, called for forming the team and its supporting network, which includes the Defense Department and other agencies.
The goal, he said, was "to figure out who attacked us" by analyzing the origins of nuclear materials and the origins and design of the devices.
Many experts say the risk of a terrorist nuclear attack is low but no longer unthinkable, given the spread of atomic materials and know-how.
A senior military official, who insisted on anonymity because he was not authorized to disclose details of the program, said the threat reduction agency successfully conducted an exercise in October involving hundreds of people from many agencies. The participants, he said, included field workers gathering radioactive samples, nuclear analysts in laboratories working on the data and intelligence experts.
"It was a blind test," the official said. "None of the participants knew what they were analyzing."
The White House was briefed on the success in identifying the origins of the material, he added.
The official said that the site from which the team would send personnel and robots to gather radioactive samples was classified.
A document on the atomic sleuthing effort obtained by The New York Times said that the team had achieved an "initial integrated operational attribution capability for accurate and rapid attribution."
The document also said that the threat reduction agency had developed and exercised "robot technologies to collect debris samples in high radiation fields."
In the cold war, learning a nuclear attacker's identity was seen as simply a matter of tracking a missile from its blastoff point. But the threat of domestic terrorism using unconventional arms has changed that, adding the potential for anonymity.
Part of the new effort deals with reviving a science lost after the cold war — radioactive fallout analysis. Faint clues, often invisible to the eye, can, under intense scientific scrutiny, help identify an exploded bomb's type and characteristics.
Federal experts say that positively identifying the origin may require matching signatures from the debris with libraries of classified data about nuclear arms from around the world, including old fallout records and more direct intelligence about bomb types, characteristics and construction materials.
This detective work has many potential complexities, including the fact that knowing who made a bomb may say little about who detonated it. In Tom Clancy's "Sum of All Fears" (1991), Islamic terrorists find, rebuild and detonate an Israeli nuclear weapon.
Federal experts say that with the complex variety of possible threats — for instance, an American warhead being stolen and detonated in an American city — many types of intelligence may be needed. Although the threat reduction agency leads the effort, the program draws on experts at other agencies like the Homeland Security Department, the Justice Department, the Energy Department and eight national laboratories, officials said.
If an attack occurred overseas, the field elements of a team could rush there to gather radioactive and other samples for analysis at home, the senior military official said.
"That's clearly what it's designed to do," he said of the team.
Experts agree that such detective work can prove difficult. For years, the International Atomic Energy Agency has struggled with limited success to identify the source of highly enriched uranium, a potential bomb fuel, found by the agency's inspectors on Iranian nuclear gear.
Military officials said that the identification program was making great strides in detection and that they expected new advances.
"Our capabilities are much improved," the senior military official said. "We've trained a new generation, and they'll push the science and the operations into the future."
The Democrats on Tuesday, Hillary included, shook their heads, rolled their eyes, and smirked at the president's speech; especially when he came to addressing Iran. We live-blogged the whole speech, but paid little attention to the reaction of the Democrats. We were focused on what the president was saying. And when he was speaking about Iran, it should have been like the old E.F. Hutton commercials. We E.F. Hutton speaks, people listen. The Democrats opted to continue playing their partisan games.
Why is it that a once, proud national party has let itself fall to pieces like this? This used to be the government of a strong military, and sensible national security interests. Now, they have bvecome the party of special interests, and such subjects, I suppose, bore them now.
Thomas and I were going to put up a collaborative post as a warning to the president to tread lightly with Iran, but after his speech, he needs no such warning. He knows what a danger that country is to the region, and indeed to the hemisphere it sits in. Worse, should it obtain a nuclear weapon, and a long-range missile (Yes, they are purchasing 25 ICBMs from Russia, but it is not known what range those missiles have), they could strike anywhere on the globe. And let us not forget this: Ahmadinejad is just crazy enough to use a nuclear weapon first over conventional weapons.
So, this is why we are doing these tests, and running these scenarios. We know we live in an extremely dangerous world where nuclear weapons are not the weapon of choice from the past, but the most desired piece of military hardware by outlaw regimes, rogue states, and terrorist fanatics. We cannot take the chance that these nations will look the other way, and not come after us. Too many old grudges, too many old wounds, and too many nations that believe they have a score to settle.
Things are coming to a head, and the denial of the Democrats is foolish. As long as they continue to act this way, they cannot be trusted with national security. It is that simple. They cannot, in good conscience, seriously deny that Iran is not a danger. It is as dangerous as North Korea is; the difference between the two is that Kim Jong-Il would prefer to use his nuclear weapons in nuclear blackmail schemes. "Give me what I want because I am a nut, or I will light off a nuke."
We do not negotiate with dictators, tyrants, or terrorists. And the only reason Il has not, as yet, lit off a nuclear weapon is because he has a handful, at best. We still have thousands in our arsenal. Not a wise move. That would be like going to a gunfight with only six rounds in your pistol. Meanwhile, your opponent is opposite you with an MP-5 with thirty rounds. Who is going to win that showdown; I guarantee it will not be North Korea.
And the same goes for Iran. Ahmadinejad keeps claiming that they will destroy Israel in "holy," nuclear fire. Not if he only has one bomb, he will not. That is suicide. No, Iran will build up it's arsenal. BUT, we cannot allow that day to come. No madman has a "right" to anything, especially nuclear weapons. So, let us make sure that our leaders--the Bush Administration--do good on their promise to never allow Iran nuclear power to be weaponized.
The Bunny ;)
The New York Times put this story up this morning. Let me state, for the record, that while we dislike the MSM--especially both cage-liner. coastal Times--that this story is important. REMEMBER this story, and REMEMBER the Democrats during the State of the Union speech.
The Pentagon has formed a team of nuclear experts to analyze the fallout from a terrorist nuclear attack on American soil in an effort to identify the attackers, officials have said.
The team, which can draw on hundreds of federal experts, uses such tools as robots that gather radioactive debris and sensitive gear to detect the origins of a device, whether a true atomic weapon or a so-called dirty bomb, that uses ordinary explosives to spew radioactivity.
The objective is to determine quickly who exploded the device and where it came from, in part to clarify the options to strike back, the officials said. The government also hopes that terrorists will be less likely to use a nuclear device if they know that it can be traced.
Michael K. Evenson, associate director for operations at the Pentagon's Defense Threat Reduction Agency, which directs the team, said the program began operating last year. In federal parlance, the team conducts domestic nuclear event attribution, informally post-event forensics.
"I'm very confident we can achieve what we set out to do," Mr. Evenson said in an interview. "We've started, and intend to continue, an exercise and evaluation program so this doesn't fall into atrophy."
Today, Mr. Evenson is to speak about the detective work at a conference in Arlington, Va., sponsored by the Institute for Defense and Government Advancement, a company that runs military meetings. Officials said the talk would be the first time a federal official has publicly spoken about the program.
News reports have described scientific research conducted by the Pentagon and other federal agencies on discovering the origins of nuclear materials and devices. But the fact that the government is able to field organized teams to respond to an attack has not been reported.
Mr. Evenson said a secret presidential directive, "National Strategy to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction," signed in September 2002, called for forming the team and its supporting network, which includes the Defense Department and other agencies.
The goal, he said, was "to figure out who attacked us" by analyzing the origins of nuclear materials and the origins and design of the devices.
Many experts say the risk of a terrorist nuclear attack is low but no longer unthinkable, given the spread of atomic materials and know-how.
A senior military official, who insisted on anonymity because he was not authorized to disclose details of the program, said the threat reduction agency successfully conducted an exercise in October involving hundreds of people from many agencies. The participants, he said, included field workers gathering radioactive samples, nuclear analysts in laboratories working on the data and intelligence experts.
"It was a blind test," the official said. "None of the participants knew what they were analyzing."
The White House was briefed on the success in identifying the origins of the material, he added.
The official said that the site from which the team would send personnel and robots to gather radioactive samples was classified.
A document on the atomic sleuthing effort obtained by The New York Times said that the team had achieved an "initial integrated operational attribution capability for accurate and rapid attribution."
The document also said that the threat reduction agency had developed and exercised "robot technologies to collect debris samples in high radiation fields."
In the cold war, learning a nuclear attacker's identity was seen as simply a matter of tracking a missile from its blastoff point. But the threat of domestic terrorism using unconventional arms has changed that, adding the potential for anonymity.
Part of the new effort deals with reviving a science lost after the cold war — radioactive fallout analysis. Faint clues, often invisible to the eye, can, under intense scientific scrutiny, help identify an exploded bomb's type and characteristics.
Federal experts say that positively identifying the origin may require matching signatures from the debris with libraries of classified data about nuclear arms from around the world, including old fallout records and more direct intelligence about bomb types, characteristics and construction materials.
This detective work has many potential complexities, including the fact that knowing who made a bomb may say little about who detonated it. In Tom Clancy's "Sum of All Fears" (1991), Islamic terrorists find, rebuild and detonate an Israeli nuclear weapon.
Federal experts say that with the complex variety of possible threats — for instance, an American warhead being stolen and detonated in an American city — many types of intelligence may be needed. Although the threat reduction agency leads the effort, the program draws on experts at other agencies like the Homeland Security Department, the Justice Department, the Energy Department and eight national laboratories, officials said.
If an attack occurred overseas, the field elements of a team could rush there to gather radioactive and other samples for analysis at home, the senior military official said.
"That's clearly what it's designed to do," he said of the team.
Experts agree that such detective work can prove difficult. For years, the International Atomic Energy Agency has struggled with limited success to identify the source of highly enriched uranium, a potential bomb fuel, found by the agency's inspectors on Iranian nuclear gear.
Military officials said that the identification program was making great strides in detection and that they expected new advances.
"Our capabilities are much improved," the senior military official said. "We've trained a new generation, and they'll push the science and the operations into the future."
The Democrats on Tuesday, Hillary included, shook their heads, rolled their eyes, and smirked at the president's speech; especially when he came to addressing Iran. We live-blogged the whole speech, but paid little attention to the reaction of the Democrats. We were focused on what the president was saying. And when he was speaking about Iran, it should have been like the old E.F. Hutton commercials. We E.F. Hutton speaks, people listen. The Democrats opted to continue playing their partisan games.
Why is it that a once, proud national party has let itself fall to pieces like this? This used to be the government of a strong military, and sensible national security interests. Now, they have bvecome the party of special interests, and such subjects, I suppose, bore them now.
Thomas and I were going to put up a collaborative post as a warning to the president to tread lightly with Iran, but after his speech, he needs no such warning. He knows what a danger that country is to the region, and indeed to the hemisphere it sits in. Worse, should it obtain a nuclear weapon, and a long-range missile (Yes, they are purchasing 25 ICBMs from Russia, but it is not known what range those missiles have), they could strike anywhere on the globe. And let us not forget this: Ahmadinejad is just crazy enough to use a nuclear weapon first over conventional weapons.
So, this is why we are doing these tests, and running these scenarios. We know we live in an extremely dangerous world where nuclear weapons are not the weapon of choice from the past, but the most desired piece of military hardware by outlaw regimes, rogue states, and terrorist fanatics. We cannot take the chance that these nations will look the other way, and not come after us. Too many old grudges, too many old wounds, and too many nations that believe they have a score to settle.
Things are coming to a head, and the denial of the Democrats is foolish. As long as they continue to act this way, they cannot be trusted with national security. It is that simple. They cannot, in good conscience, seriously deny that Iran is not a danger. It is as dangerous as North Korea is; the difference between the two is that Kim Jong-Il would prefer to use his nuclear weapons in nuclear blackmail schemes. "Give me what I want because I am a nut, or I will light off a nuke."
We do not negotiate with dictators, tyrants, or terrorists. And the only reason Il has not, as yet, lit off a nuclear weapon is because he has a handful, at best. We still have thousands in our arsenal. Not a wise move. That would be like going to a gunfight with only six rounds in your pistol. Meanwhile, your opponent is opposite you with an MP-5 with thirty rounds. Who is going to win that showdown; I guarantee it will not be North Korea.
And the same goes for Iran. Ahmadinejad keeps claiming that they will destroy Israel in "holy," nuclear fire. Not if he only has one bomb, he will not. That is suicide. No, Iran will build up it's arsenal. BUT, we cannot allow that day to come. No madman has a "right" to anything, especially nuclear weapons. So, let us make sure that our leaders--the Bush Administration--do good on their promise to never allow Iran nuclear power to be weaponized.
The Bunny ;)
posted by Syd And Vaughn | 10:56 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home