Follow-Up On The New UN Report
Marcie picked up the report from PJM yesterday where the Monitoring Group presiding over Somalia has reported that Iran is involved in violating the UN embargo on that nation. The embargo deals with the sale of weapons to Somalia, with was forbidden by the UNSC under Resolutions 733 and 1676. Both of these resolutions forbid Somalia from importain any weapons.
Now, while Marcie and PJM are both correct--Iran is seriously involved in this--they are not the only ones involved, and this report gives a detailed breakdown of shipments that they observed, or learned of from sources on the ground. The nations openly violating these resolutions are: Djibouti, Egypt, Eritrea, Iran, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Uganda, and Yemen. Ethiopia, Uganda, and Yemen are aligned with the former ruling warlords of Somalia, while the other seven are firmly in the Islamicists camp.
In short, both sides are lining up for a fight for the control of the country. They have the weapons, the munitions, and the manpower. Furthermore, those weapons aren't simply handheld firearms. They include anti-tank weapons, SAM platforms (including the SA-7 "Grail" and the SA-6 "Gainful," mobile missile system and the standard RPG-7's), and anti-tank mines. This is heavy stuff, folks. This isn't a couple of kids playing "war" with BB guns here.
In addition to the ten nations listed above, Hezbollah has also been involved in Somalia, especially with the training for recruits, and foreign fighters that have moved into Somalia. I know a lot of people around the world would rather that the Islamicist faction and the former warlords just get it on, kill each other off, and be done with it, but there are a couple of problems with that thought process.
First, Iran's desire to obtain uranium makes this prospective war dangerous. They want uranium, and they're not going to be willing to sit on the sidelines if a pipeline to the element is threatened. If push comes to shove, the Lebanese wing of Hezbollah won't be the only ones in Somalia. The Iranian wing will be there, too, and Ahmadinejad has enough terrorists to spare. Adding more fuel to the fire, if the Iraqis eventually take on al-Sadr's Mahdi Army, Somalia would be the perfect landing spot for them to run to if things start to get dicey in Iraq. So, the Islamicists, just from Iran's involvement, could get a serious boost in battle-hardened manpower.
Second, if these two factions do end up going to war with one another, one of the two of them will end up being the big dog when all the dust settles. And the report makes no bones about the fact that the Islamicists are getting more advanced weaponry than their rivals for power. Much of the weaponry--both firearms and hardware--are still being used around the globe today in a variety of military forces. That includes fighter planes, too, using precision, laser-guided bombs. That goes beyond the terrorist we fight in a mountain armed with a Kalishnikov and a Stinger system.
Last, the Monitoring Group makes a solid case that the resolutions have been violated. The nations involved, once contacted, have naturally denied they had any part in any deals that would break the embargo. Nations like Syria and Iran sent no response to any inquiries. But even if this report's taken at face value, what comes next from the UN? Peacekeepers? Somalia doesn't need peacekeepers. It needs to be wiped clean of both factions, but I don't think the UN has the balls to ask other nations to help them go in--under a UN mandate--and disarm both sides. Besides, based on what I've read in the report, that prospect would be suicide. Both factions know the land, and have control of a great many "soldiers;" it would be like lambs to the slaughter for any UN force going into Somalia to disarm both sides.
I know that right now the experts (even us "lay experts") have their eyes on Iran, and we'd like to nail them on anything. But in this case, they aren't the only ones making an African nation a threat; not just to itself, but the surrounding region. ALL of these nations, according to the UN report, have broken the embargo. Something must be done to Somalia, but there needs to be punishments handed out to the nations that have openly violated the resolutions. This was an aspect of the job that Kofi Annan seemed to ignore during his tenure. It's not just about being the top guy. It's about holding the UN to its mandate and charter. If you're not going to stand for making sure things like this don't occur in the world, then why in the Hell are they even around?
Publius II
Marcie picked up the report from PJM yesterday where the Monitoring Group presiding over Somalia has reported that Iran is involved in violating the UN embargo on that nation. The embargo deals with the sale of weapons to Somalia, with was forbidden by the UNSC under Resolutions 733 and 1676. Both of these resolutions forbid Somalia from importain any weapons.
Now, while Marcie and PJM are both correct--Iran is seriously involved in this--they are not the only ones involved, and this report gives a detailed breakdown of shipments that they observed, or learned of from sources on the ground. The nations openly violating these resolutions are: Djibouti, Egypt, Eritrea, Iran, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Uganda, and Yemen. Ethiopia, Uganda, and Yemen are aligned with the former ruling warlords of Somalia, while the other seven are firmly in the Islamicists camp.
In short, both sides are lining up for a fight for the control of the country. They have the weapons, the munitions, and the manpower. Furthermore, those weapons aren't simply handheld firearms. They include anti-tank weapons, SAM platforms (including the SA-7 "Grail" and the SA-6 "Gainful," mobile missile system and the standard RPG-7's), and anti-tank mines. This is heavy stuff, folks. This isn't a couple of kids playing "war" with BB guns here.
In addition to the ten nations listed above, Hezbollah has also been involved in Somalia, especially with the training for recruits, and foreign fighters that have moved into Somalia. I know a lot of people around the world would rather that the Islamicist faction and the former warlords just get it on, kill each other off, and be done with it, but there are a couple of problems with that thought process.
First, Iran's desire to obtain uranium makes this prospective war dangerous. They want uranium, and they're not going to be willing to sit on the sidelines if a pipeline to the element is threatened. If push comes to shove, the Lebanese wing of Hezbollah won't be the only ones in Somalia. The Iranian wing will be there, too, and Ahmadinejad has enough terrorists to spare. Adding more fuel to the fire, if the Iraqis eventually take on al-Sadr's Mahdi Army, Somalia would be the perfect landing spot for them to run to if things start to get dicey in Iraq. So, the Islamicists, just from Iran's involvement, could get a serious boost in battle-hardened manpower.
Second, if these two factions do end up going to war with one another, one of the two of them will end up being the big dog when all the dust settles. And the report makes no bones about the fact that the Islamicists are getting more advanced weaponry than their rivals for power. Much of the weaponry--both firearms and hardware--are still being used around the globe today in a variety of military forces. That includes fighter planes, too, using precision, laser-guided bombs. That goes beyond the terrorist we fight in a mountain armed with a Kalishnikov and a Stinger system.
Last, the Monitoring Group makes a solid case that the resolutions have been violated. The nations involved, once contacted, have naturally denied they had any part in any deals that would break the embargo. Nations like Syria and Iran sent no response to any inquiries. But even if this report's taken at face value, what comes next from the UN? Peacekeepers? Somalia doesn't need peacekeepers. It needs to be wiped clean of both factions, but I don't think the UN has the balls to ask other nations to help them go in--under a UN mandate--and disarm both sides. Besides, based on what I've read in the report, that prospect would be suicide. Both factions know the land, and have control of a great many "soldiers;" it would be like lambs to the slaughter for any UN force going into Somalia to disarm both sides.
I know that right now the experts (even us "lay experts") have their eyes on Iran, and we'd like to nail them on anything. But in this case, they aren't the only ones making an African nation a threat; not just to itself, but the surrounding region. ALL of these nations, according to the UN report, have broken the embargo. Something must be done to Somalia, but there needs to be punishments handed out to the nations that have openly violated the resolutions. This was an aspect of the job that Kofi Annan seemed to ignore during his tenure. It's not just about being the top guy. It's about holding the UN to its mandate and charter. If you're not going to stand for making sure things like this don't occur in the world, then why in the Hell are they even around?
Publius II
posted by Syd And Vaughn | 4:56 PM
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