Open Topic Sunday ... Debate--Iran; Part Three
Wow. We went from Marcie talking about the Strait of Hormuz as a strategic point, especially considering the two countries that have borders with it (Iran and the UAE), to me trying to calm her fears regarding the strait, to her raising the ante with the possibility of military action int he region. If I knew I was going to have to think this hard, I would have gotten that extra hour's sleep I was considering.
The possibility of military action over a closure of the strait does go up if we gain no assistance from the UAE. However, I still contend that the UAE will not hold a grudge. They will still allow our ships entry and berthing, and that alone will keep Iran at bay. Iran isn't willing to risk an engagement this early in the game, which is why they are betting on a veto from Russia or China on the UNSC. Then, the stakes go up. What will we do in the event of a veto? We already have our own sanctions against Iran, so further ones would not truly help. A blockade, maybe? No Iranian ships leaving the strait, possibly? The risk of a military engagement indeed does go up at that point.
Are we ready and willing to commit such efforts against Iran?
I think we would be, but that is a different matter altogether. Focus; the strait is the issue at hand. I still maintain that the damage done in the refusal of the port deal is minimal. The UAE won't harbor many ill feelings about it. They depend on our ships being there, and the money paid for such operations. Well, maybe not depend, but they would welcome the business. The almighty dollar is likely to play a role in this debate. What is more important to the UAE, keeping our ships in port and making money, or turning us away, and losing that money? I'd side with the former, and because of that, the UAE will do whatever it can to keep us there. In addition to our ships berthed there, our presence there virtually guarantees their traffic continuing unimpeded through the strait. Again, Iran's not ready for the face-off they will surely provoke if they try to shut down the strait.
Mistress Pundit
Wow. We went from Marcie talking about the Strait of Hormuz as a strategic point, especially considering the two countries that have borders with it (Iran and the UAE), to me trying to calm her fears regarding the strait, to her raising the ante with the possibility of military action int he region. If I knew I was going to have to think this hard, I would have gotten that extra hour's sleep I was considering.
The possibility of military action over a closure of the strait does go up if we gain no assistance from the UAE. However, I still contend that the UAE will not hold a grudge. They will still allow our ships entry and berthing, and that alone will keep Iran at bay. Iran isn't willing to risk an engagement this early in the game, which is why they are betting on a veto from Russia or China on the UNSC. Then, the stakes go up. What will we do in the event of a veto? We already have our own sanctions against Iran, so further ones would not truly help. A blockade, maybe? No Iranian ships leaving the strait, possibly? The risk of a military engagement indeed does go up at that point.
Are we ready and willing to commit such efforts against Iran?
I think we would be, but that is a different matter altogether. Focus; the strait is the issue at hand. I still maintain that the damage done in the refusal of the port deal is minimal. The UAE won't harbor many ill feelings about it. They depend on our ships being there, and the money paid for such operations. Well, maybe not depend, but they would welcome the business. The almighty dollar is likely to play a role in this debate. What is more important to the UAE, keeping our ships in port and making money, or turning us away, and losing that money? I'd side with the former, and because of that, the UAE will do whatever it can to keep us there. In addition to our ships berthed there, our presence there virtually guarantees their traffic continuing unimpeded through the strait. Again, Iran's not ready for the face-off they will surely provoke if they try to shut down the strait.
Mistress Pundit
posted by Syd And Vaughn | 11:47 PM
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