Open Topic Sunday ... Debate--Iran
I just finished reading Marcie's post regarding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. As this is an open topic, I'd like to open up a pseudo-debate about this.
While I defer to the youngest member of the site for her wisdom, knowledge, and excellent researching, I have to take issue with the assumption made. That would be the one regarding the UAE. Yes, the port deal did do a bit of damage to the relationship we share with the UAE, but I don't think it will reflect badly ont he president. He still has the ability to look at the UAE and tell them "I'm sorry, I tried." The UAE may be willing to accept the fact that it was Congress, not the president, making the decision.
If the UAE does decide that, then the relationship might still be good enough to allow us access to, and use of the strait. Iran isn't willing to provoke a response from the US or the West should they shut down the strait. Besides, shutting down traffic in the strait hurts Iran just as much as the world. As a matter of fact, I contend that it would hurt that area of the region more than it would the world. The world still gets oil from other regions in the world.
Shutting down the strait is a lose-lose scenario for the Iranians. They hurt their neighbors and themselves, and the UAE is still going to allow US traffic through, which would still protect oil tankers going through the strait. Iran doesn't have the capability to engage in any sort of short-term conflict with our warships. The president would most likely, should Iran directly threaten the end of strait traffic, deploy additional warships to the region to protect the tankers. Also, it would put us on a war-footing over there against Iran; another prospect that Iran might want to consider before taking such a drastic step.
Mistress Pundit
I just finished reading Marcie's post regarding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. As this is an open topic, I'd like to open up a pseudo-debate about this.
While I defer to the youngest member of the site for her wisdom, knowledge, and excellent researching, I have to take issue with the assumption made. That would be the one regarding the UAE. Yes, the port deal did do a bit of damage to the relationship we share with the UAE, but I don't think it will reflect badly ont he president. He still has the ability to look at the UAE and tell them "I'm sorry, I tried." The UAE may be willing to accept the fact that it was Congress, not the president, making the decision.
If the UAE does decide that, then the relationship might still be good enough to allow us access to, and use of the strait. Iran isn't willing to provoke a response from the US or the West should they shut down the strait. Besides, shutting down traffic in the strait hurts Iran just as much as the world. As a matter of fact, I contend that it would hurt that area of the region more than it would the world. The world still gets oil from other regions in the world.
Shutting down the strait is a lose-lose scenario for the Iranians. They hurt their neighbors and themselves, and the UAE is still going to allow US traffic through, which would still protect oil tankers going through the strait. Iran doesn't have the capability to engage in any sort of short-term conflict with our warships. The president would most likely, should Iran directly threaten the end of strait traffic, deploy additional warships to the region to protect the tankers. Also, it would put us on a war-footing over there against Iran; another prospect that Iran might want to consider before taking such a drastic step.
Mistress Pundit
posted by Syd And Vaughn | 12:50 AM
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