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Monday, December 18, 2006

The North Korea Six-Nation Game

Kim Jong-Il is feeling a bit "ronry" today, so he is back in the news. He has returned to the six-nation talks, and promises he will end his nuclear program, but he demands a little quid pro quo first from the six nations involved:

Hat-Tip: Captain Ed

North Korea has said it would only consider scrapping its nuclear weapons when all international sanctions against it are lifted, as disarmament talks resumed here after a 13-month break.

Declaring itself "satisfied" with becoming a nuclear power following its first-ever atomic test on October 9, North Korea offered no signs of compromise at the six-nation talks Monday, according to officials who were at the forum.

Instead North Korean chief envoy Kim Kye-Gwan called, in his opening remarks to the talks, for United Nations and US sanctions to be lifted, as well as repeating long-held demands for help in developing a nuclear power industry.

The United Nations sanctions were imposed following North Korea's historic atomic test, while the US financial restrictions were slapped on the reclusive nation late last year for alleged money laundering and counterfeiting.

The other parties to the talks -- host China, the United States, Japan, South Korea and Russia -- had all said they were hoping the negotiations would see the North recommit to a disarmament deal brokered in September last year.
That deal saw the North agree to give up its nuclear program in return for security guarantees, energy benefits and other aid.

"The North Koreans insisted that discussions about the implementation of the September 19 joint statement would be possible only after both the US financial sanctions and the UN sanctions are lifted," a source who was at the opening talks said.

Kim Jong-Il is once against trying to be in the drivers seat of these talks by making these demands. The problem with a quid pro quo exchange is that there has to be something tangible there for the other side to give something back. His word is not good enough because he has broken it so many times. But I think this goes a little further than wanting to end the suffering he is facing. I think this goes back to China.

China has been a longtime supporter of the North Korean regime. They were there during the Korean War, and they have been there ever since. It is no secret that the Chinese have been sending food, money, and supplies to the failing regime, but the nuclear test the North Koreans pulled off this year--a test which China demanded they not perform--was, in my opinion, the straw that broke the camel's back. Word began circulating that China might be interested in supporting a move to remove Kim themselves. Since then, Kim has calmed down, and returned to the table. He knows he is skating on thin ice with China.

The other thing he has to understand at this point is that he will not win at the negotiating table unless he solidly recommits to the disarmament plan the six-nation talks put together last year. If his answer is "no," then he will be watching the nation of Japan rearm, and they will be backed by the United States. The United Nations sanctions will stay in place. And China and South Korea will leave him to the wolves; those woilves will most likely come in the form of his own armed forces, who attempted coups against him in the late 1990s, and only failed because China had his back.This time, China will not be there.

His people are starving. His nation is collapsing. The great Communist experiment of the North is a dismal failure. He has been brought to his knees, and not just by the Western powers, but by his closest ally, as well. If Kim Jong-Il does not play ball this time around, he is finished.



Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good blog. Kim JongII doesn't care about the people. He's like most dictators-selfish with a large ego and their word is not to be trusted. He knows that we backed down in the "peace" talks resulting in the 38th parallel.
He also knows the prosperity of South Korea. He wants us out of Korea. He wants to beat Iran to the bomb. He's insane. Rawriter

12:03 AM  

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