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Sunday, April 30, 2006

Switch It Up: Suicide Attacks Aren't Working

Captain Ed brings us a report from The London Times that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi has decided that he can't match US troops in Iraq using the "martyr's" tactics. Suicide attacks aren't working. So, he is "switching up" his tactics. He's building a mini army in Iraq.

THE leader of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, is attempting to set up his own mini-army and move away from individual suicide attacks to a more organised resistance movement, according to US intelligence sources.

Faced with a shortage of foreign fighters willing to undertake suicide missions, Zarqawi wants to turn his group into a more traditional force mounting co-ordinated guerrilla raids on coalition targets.

Al-Qaeda is sending training and planning experts to help to set up the force and infiltrate members into Iraq with the assistance of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, the sources said.


Mowaffak al-Rubaie, Iraq’s national security adviser, said this weekend that the majority of American and British troops would have left by the end of next year. “By the middle of 2008 there will be no foreign soldiers in the country,” he predicted.

In a video posted yesterday on an Islamist website, Ayman al-Zawahiri, deputy leader of Al-Qaeda, claimed that 800 “martyrdom operations” in three years had “broken the back of America in Iraq”.

The change of strategy will make it easier for Zarqawi to link up with Iraqi insurgents and evade the allied special operations teams trying to track him down.

Zarqawi came close to capture two weeks ago, Defense News, the international news weekly, reported yesterday. An American raid on a terrorist safe house in Yusifiya, 20 miles southwest of Baghdad, was aimed at capturing one of his lieutenants, but when five men at the house were interrogated, it emerged that Zarqawi had been in a house close by.


If Zarqawi thinks this will present problems for us, he should rethink that idea. Guerilla fighting is something our troops are quite adept at, and have been for some time. The British during the Revolutionary War couldn't handle the militias assembled that fought using guerilla tactics. They knew the lay of the land. We've been in Iraq since 2003--three years for us to adapt to fighting over there. His switrch shows that he now knows that his cowardly attacks aren't working. And he already knows that confronting and engaging our forces head-on is assured suicide; this is why he switched from guerilla tactics to suicide attacks.

And where have those attacks gotten him. He is doing more damage to Iraqi civilians, thereby hurting his own cause, and it's showing itself every time he engages the Iraqi security forces. They're not running. They're standing and fighting, even against tactics such as suicide bombers. In short, folks, his strategy is failing and this switch shows it.While Zarqawi may be the best al Qaeda leader at gaining financial support (as reported by Richard Miniter last week on the Tuesday edition of Dennis Prager's show) and in recruiting (the majority of his recruits coming from Syria and Iran, also reported by Mr. Miniter then), he is severely lacking in any strong signs of progress. And he's gaining no help from the antiwar crowd here at home.

The call has come, once again, for the withdrawal of our forces from Iraq. It's coming from the antiwar nutters, who have no clue what they're talking about when it comes to war and strategy, and it's also arising from the Democrat party again. Many candidates for the House are basically campaigning on a "bring the troops home," "retreat and defeat" strategy. Anyone who has studied terrorism in the Middle East since the rise of the Islamofascists in the 1979 Iranian revolution knows that retreat only invites further violence. To pull out now, with Iraq still assembling their government, and beginning day-to-day operations, would only bring the downfall of a government we have helped establish.

I agree with the Iraqi NSA: By 2008, no foreign fighters should be in Iraq. I contend we should be out sooner. the end of 2006 is a nice starting point, but pulling out too quickly would be a death knell for Iraq. We do it methodically, until we're sure they can stand on their own. This is the walking phase of their adolescence; when we leave, they'd better be able to run.

But we can't do that if Zarqawi is still there. He's changing his tactics, painfully aware that sacrificing his men in idiotic suicide bombings isn't the smartest thing to do. (This should show people what exactly we're dealing with over there, now.) While able to change his tactics, it took him this long to figure out that blowing his men up was rather retarded. Who'd a thunk it, right? DUH! A good commander knows that losing more men than he can afford is a losing effort. This, apparently, just dawned on Zarqawi. Needless to say, he sin't the master genius his supporters--here and abroad--have proclaimed him to be. He can be tripped up like anyone else can. We did. He's not winning this fight. He knows he's losing, and he knows that he has to change something.

This change won't be something we're unprepared for. However, we may see a rise in the death toll. So, everybody brace for that to be blazened across our front pages and TVs every night. But bear in mind that our soldiers know what they're doing. They know the risks, and they understand that freedom doesn't come free. The same goes for the Iraqis over there. And that is something the anitwar people should be paying attention to.

We didn't want this war. It was delivered to our doorstep; etched in blood for all the world to see. The world has responded, and rather than simply stepping on the nest and letting the survivors scurry away, we decided to follow them, and run them to ground. bin Laden is essentially grounded (if he's still sucking oxygen), and so is Zarqawi. He has two neighboring countries friendly to him, but only as long as it's feasible for them to do so. The moment he becomes a liability, it will be like bin Laden and Sudan all over again. So, he has a predicament. This is his answer.

Our answer's a bit more straight forward. We are coming. We will find you. And no one cares whether you come out of the encounter breathing or not. But we will get you; it's only a matter of time. Oh, and I suggest not staying somewhere too long. He's had two close calls with our spec-ops guys. Third time's a charm, and will relish the images of either his worthless, lifeless body, or the humiliation of being caught by US troops. If he lives, I hope he likes rice pilaf and that five-by-five cell at Gitmo.

Publius II

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