Foley Fallout Part III: This Doesn't Bode Well For the Democrats
And in my personal opinion the this report of Senator Allen opening up a double-digit lead over James Webb actually shows just how far the Democrats have overplayed their hand.
Incumbent Virginia Sen. George Allen, who has suffered through some serious campaign missteps in recent weeks and days, is now making a comeback. Those problems had resulted in the loss of a big lead over Democratic challenger James Webb, but it now appears Allen is once again on solid ground. He leads Webb, 48% to 37%, with 13% yet undecided. Allen is the only Republican in the 10 Senate races featured in the Reuters/Zogby poll to hold a double-digit lead.
Yesterday, Hugh Hewitt conducted and interview with John McIntyre of Real Clear Politics. They were, of course, discussing the upcoming midterms. (I'm still waiting for the transcript from the interview so I can read and analyze what was said.)
Why do I say that this could bear the fruit of a pseudo-loss for the Democrats in November? Because instead of capitalizing on the Foley scandal (seemingly less of one today thanks in part to this report from Drudge), they attacked. They pulled out the stops, and went right after the GOP before any of the smoke cleared from the Foley resignation. And it wasn't just those in Congress now, like Nancy Pelosi, but potential ones like Patty Wetterling (who I addressed last night thanks to ahelpful heads-up from Captain's Quarters) when she decided to use her blatantly false ad portraying the Republicans as something they're not even remotely close to being.
America's not happy with the way that the Democrats reacted to this. To the nation, I'm sure that much of their discomfort with this subject stems from what they remember of the attacks on former President Clinton. They didn't like it then, and they sure as heck don't like it now. It looks way too much like a witch-hunt. And as John McIntyre pointed out, the Democrats are banking on the same nonexistent momentum that the Republicans thought they would have going into the 1998 midterms. They don't have it. America's turned off by their form of partisan politics.
But if you take a look at the polls--especially the hotly-contested races--we see something that shouldn't have happened. The Democrats received no major bump in the polls, and many actually slipped.
Pederson/Kyl? Pederson lost two points. Kyl still has a decent lead.
Lieberman/Lamont? Lamont got a seven point jump from last week to this week, but is still behind by ten.
Steele/Cardin? Both lost points--Steele lost four; Cardin lost 2.
Bouchard/Stabenow? Bouchard gained nine, Stabenow lost 4.
Kennedy/Klobuchar? Mark Kennedy got a six point bump while Klobuchar lost 1.
Talent/McCaskill? This one was an anamoly. BOTH had gains, and Jim Talent is still trailing in the margin of error.
Burns/Tester? Burns gained two, Tester lost one, and now Burns is within three points; again, within the margin of error.
Kean/Menendez? Kean picked up 4 points and Menendez went nowhere, and Menendez's lead is cut by four points overall. (This should surprise no one as the unfolding scandals around Robert Menendez continue to, well, unfold. LOL)
DeWine/Brown? Again, another anamoly. Both gained, but Brown's was bigger, by seven points overall.
Santorum/Casey? Both lost ground in this one, like the Steele/Cardin race, and Casey opened up three more points overall against Santorum.
Chafee/Whitehouse? The only race where we, at The Asylum, are hoping that the Democrats will win shows that chafee lost nothing, but Whitehouse picked up three points to open his lead up by the same margin. (Yeah, its the margin of error, but we're still hoping for a Chafee defeat.)
Corker/Ford? Both lost ground again, and the lead Ford has is one point.
McGavick/Cantwell? Cantwell lost 4, McGavick lost two, and Maria Cantwell's lead is cut by two points.
There should have been a world-class @$$-whooping in the polls from the Democrats. There wasn't. Many slipped in the polls. The Foley scandal isn;t going to deliver the Democrats the House, and it's appearing it's not really helping them in the Senate, either. The Democrats need SIX seats to retake control of the Senate. They're not going to get it out of Arizona. Kyl will defeat Jim Pederson. In Connecticut Lieberman will soundly beat Ned Lamont, unless a miracle emerges somewhere for the "nutroots." Right now, the people of Connecticut are telling those moonbats that they don't want their extremist representing them.
If Bouchard continues to gain on Stabenow, she could be in deep trouble come election day. Steele's got his hands full with Cardin, but there's hope for him. If he can take between fifteen and twenty percent of minority votes, he's got a serious shot to beat Cardin. Mark Kennedy's in the same boat as Bouchard. He gained against Klobuchar, and as long as he stays steady in the polls, and Klobuchar continues to slip, he'll beat him. Conrad Burns gained on Jim Tester, and I'm sure part of it stems from a couple of recent quotes showing just how much Tester doesn't know about defending this nation.
Tom Kean's gain on Menendez is big. Everyone was prepping for the Democrats to pull of the Torricelli option this past Monday. It didn't happen. They left him in to continue taking lumps about his own corruption scandal in New Jersey. That should be held over his head for the remainder of this election. If it is, and if Tom Kean continues to stay focused on the GOP platform, Menendez should go down in flames.
I'm not even going to really analyze the DeWine/Brown race. Why? Because Mike DeWine always finishes strong. I expect the race to be separated by about three to five points in the end, but DeWine is set to make some significant gains in the upcoming weeks. Sherrod Brown is simply too "crazy" when it comes to national security, and the nutroots are pushing his antiwar, anti-Bush views. Not good to the voters of Ohio, where the state resoundingly chose to reelect President Bush.
Rick Santorum's in serious trouble. He's behind by quite a bit, and he could lose his seat. This is one of the seats that we (I spoke with the kids last night) agree is a must-win to return a solid GOP leader to the Senate. But there's a distinct possibility that Santorum could lose his reelection bid. Bob Casey's got an 11 point average lead over Santorum right now, and that's a pretty tough road to hoe for Rick Santorum. Hopefully Rick can pull this out.
Chafee/Whitehouse? Chafee's going to lose. 'Nuff said. The McGavick/Cantwell race is going to be a close one, and it's one that a lot of people are calling it a toss-up. I'm apt to agree simply because neither is really gaining much against one another. This has been a close race from the start. And like the Santorum race, hopefully Mike McGavick can pull this off. He's made enough of an impact with Washington State voters already. With a little luck and hard work (and a contribution here) he could pull off an upset.
The Corker race in Tennessee is shaping up to be a make-or-break race. The GOP needs to hold onto this seat for a couple of reasons. First, it's Bill Frist's seat that is being given up. Second, a Democrat win here could signal the beginning of an ideological shift in the South. (No, I don't buy that assessment by the pundits. I don't think that these people have decided in two years it's time to turn on the GOP. If they were going to, they would have in 2004.) But the Democrats are banking on taking this seat from the GOP. They're going to need something more than Harold Ford, who is less than inept when it comes to representing his constituents. His family name is going to haunt him on election day where Tennesseeans remember that he's not fromt heir state. While he's been living there for a little while, I doubt the voters will trust him to represent them.
As things stand right now, the only contested race I see as a problem is the Santorum race (And you can can contribute here to help Rick win.) Now, I';ll give Rick Santorum credit for picking up the news of the day. His new ad is going to drill Bob Casey on amnesty for illegals on the day that the president has signed the border fence bill. And while Pennsylvania probably doesn't have the illegal immigration problem that border states have, he can tie the fence, the ineffective plan for immigration reform, and national security together, and hammer the nails into Bob Casey's political coffin. But he needs to campaign hard to win.
The key race that everyone should have been watching was the Allen/Webb race. The dirty tricks came out late in this race, and Jim Webb made the best attempts to take him down. Unfortunately, the Foley scandal didn;t help Webb. He went on the attack, but he was using the "bigot" argument against George Allen. Too bad Jim Webb doesn't know him the way the people of Virginia do. IF he did, why did Allen get the bump? Why is allen now into a double digit lead over Jim Webb. If Jim Webb thought he had George Allen on the ropes, he was mislead by his campaign cronies. He doesn't.
And now that there's about four weeks left in the election cycle, the Democrats are looking around, and wondering what happened. They were practically prophecied to retake both Houses. Their leaders promised them that this was a slam dunk. It's not looking that way now, and the Foley scandal might have just been the icing on the GOP's cake come November 8th. The Democrats took the opportunity of the Foley scandal to make some seriously slanderous comments regarding candidates and the party as a whole. And America watched, and shook its head.
I said it yesterday, and I'll say it again. Had the Democrats just kept quiet, the Foley scandal might have actually done some serious damage to the candidates this year. Instead, they let their frothing-at-the-mouth madness take hold, and they wrecked their October Surprise. Not surprising given how far the Democrats have slid to the left. Or were they pushed by the moonbat "nutroots?" Either way, this November isn't going to be a "rose garden" for the Democrats.
For the Democrats to win in November, the American voting public would have to lose it's brains somewhere. The Democrats have shown that when it comes to national security, they can't be trusted because of their efforts to curtail the programs that keep this nation safe. In addition, we would have to forget which side is calling for a withdrawal of troops from Iraq, and ultimately Afghanistan. (You can't deny that fact because if they take back both Houses, that will end up on their agenda soon enough.) We'd have to forget that the Democrats started camapigning for the House on the predisposition that when won, impeachment proceedings for President Bush and Vice President Cheney would begin, and Nancy Pelosi had a snowball's chance in H*ll of becoming president.
America's not stupid, and it's time for the Chicken Little pundits on the right to start remembering what they have said since the beginning of this year. The Democrats can't be trusted because they offer no viable solutions. They offer only vulnerability.
Sabrina McKinney
UPDATE: Dean Barnett over at Hugh's site points out something that emphasizes my point exactly. It seems that Harold Ford (running against Bob Corker in Tennessee) has just pulled a Patty Wetterling. We'll recall that Patty has this statement in a campaign ad:
It shocks the conscience. Congressional leaders have admitted to covering up the predatory behavior of a congressman who used the internet to molest children.
Harold Ford took it one step further today, and the moonbats are marching to the same beat, lock-step behind their man, right off the cliff like lemmings.
In TN, How does Harold Ford, Jr. beat back an NRSC ad that notes he once partied with Playboy bunnies?
Says Ford: "I'm not going to take a lecture on morality from a party that took hush money from a child predator."
Hush money? I do hope Mr. Ford has some evidence to back that up. If not, I hope he retracts that statement and makes an apology quickly. It's uncalled for, and a blatant lie.
Just remember, dear readers, that if the elections don't go their way in November, the nutroots who are in the driver's seat of the Democrat party are going to make 2008 one of the nastiest, most vitriolic races on record. They'll go beyond the current realm of dirty politics, and introduce the nation to a whole new brand of playing the game. They will only get worse. They'll get nuttier. They'll get meaner. And they'll be 100%, certifiably unhinged. I suggest we begin preparing now, because this attack strategy isn't working.
And in my personal opinion the this report of Senator Allen opening up a double-digit lead over James Webb actually shows just how far the Democrats have overplayed their hand.
Incumbent Virginia Sen. George Allen, who has suffered through some serious campaign missteps in recent weeks and days, is now making a comeback. Those problems had resulted in the loss of a big lead over Democratic challenger James Webb, but it now appears Allen is once again on solid ground. He leads Webb, 48% to 37%, with 13% yet undecided. Allen is the only Republican in the 10 Senate races featured in the Reuters/Zogby poll to hold a double-digit lead.
Yesterday, Hugh Hewitt conducted and interview with John McIntyre of Real Clear Politics. They were, of course, discussing the upcoming midterms. (I'm still waiting for the transcript from the interview so I can read and analyze what was said.)
Why do I say that this could bear the fruit of a pseudo-loss for the Democrats in November? Because instead of capitalizing on the Foley scandal (seemingly less of one today thanks in part to this report from Drudge), they attacked. They pulled out the stops, and went right after the GOP before any of the smoke cleared from the Foley resignation. And it wasn't just those in Congress now, like Nancy Pelosi, but potential ones like Patty Wetterling (who I addressed last night thanks to ahelpful heads-up from Captain's Quarters) when she decided to use her blatantly false ad portraying the Republicans as something they're not even remotely close to being.
America's not happy with the way that the Democrats reacted to this. To the nation, I'm sure that much of their discomfort with this subject stems from what they remember of the attacks on former President Clinton. They didn't like it then, and they sure as heck don't like it now. It looks way too much like a witch-hunt. And as John McIntyre pointed out, the Democrats are banking on the same nonexistent momentum that the Republicans thought they would have going into the 1998 midterms. They don't have it. America's turned off by their form of partisan politics.
But if you take a look at the polls--especially the hotly-contested races--we see something that shouldn't have happened. The Democrats received no major bump in the polls, and many actually slipped.
Pederson/Kyl? Pederson lost two points. Kyl still has a decent lead.
Lieberman/Lamont? Lamont got a seven point jump from last week to this week, but is still behind by ten.
Steele/Cardin? Both lost points--Steele lost four; Cardin lost 2.
Bouchard/Stabenow? Bouchard gained nine, Stabenow lost 4.
Kennedy/Klobuchar? Mark Kennedy got a six point bump while Klobuchar lost 1.
Talent/McCaskill? This one was an anamoly. BOTH had gains, and Jim Talent is still trailing in the margin of error.
Burns/Tester? Burns gained two, Tester lost one, and now Burns is within three points; again, within the margin of error.
Kean/Menendez? Kean picked up 4 points and Menendez went nowhere, and Menendez's lead is cut by four points overall. (This should surprise no one as the unfolding scandals around Robert Menendez continue to, well, unfold. LOL)
DeWine/Brown? Again, another anamoly. Both gained, but Brown's was bigger, by seven points overall.
Santorum/Casey? Both lost ground in this one, like the Steele/Cardin race, and Casey opened up three more points overall against Santorum.
Chafee/Whitehouse? The only race where we, at The Asylum, are hoping that the Democrats will win shows that chafee lost nothing, but Whitehouse picked up three points to open his lead up by the same margin. (Yeah, its the margin of error, but we're still hoping for a Chafee defeat.)
Corker/Ford? Both lost ground again, and the lead Ford has is one point.
McGavick/Cantwell? Cantwell lost 4, McGavick lost two, and Maria Cantwell's lead is cut by two points.
There should have been a world-class @$$-whooping in the polls from the Democrats. There wasn't. Many slipped in the polls. The Foley scandal isn;t going to deliver the Democrats the House, and it's appearing it's not really helping them in the Senate, either. The Democrats need SIX seats to retake control of the Senate. They're not going to get it out of Arizona. Kyl will defeat Jim Pederson. In Connecticut Lieberman will soundly beat Ned Lamont, unless a miracle emerges somewhere for the "nutroots." Right now, the people of Connecticut are telling those moonbats that they don't want their extremist representing them.
If Bouchard continues to gain on Stabenow, she could be in deep trouble come election day. Steele's got his hands full with Cardin, but there's hope for him. If he can take between fifteen and twenty percent of minority votes, he's got a serious shot to beat Cardin. Mark Kennedy's in the same boat as Bouchard. He gained against Klobuchar, and as long as he stays steady in the polls, and Klobuchar continues to slip, he'll beat him. Conrad Burns gained on Jim Tester, and I'm sure part of it stems from a couple of recent quotes showing just how much Tester doesn't know about defending this nation.
Tom Kean's gain on Menendez is big. Everyone was prepping for the Democrats to pull of the Torricelli option this past Monday. It didn't happen. They left him in to continue taking lumps about his own corruption scandal in New Jersey. That should be held over his head for the remainder of this election. If it is, and if Tom Kean continues to stay focused on the GOP platform, Menendez should go down in flames.
I'm not even going to really analyze the DeWine/Brown race. Why? Because Mike DeWine always finishes strong. I expect the race to be separated by about three to five points in the end, but DeWine is set to make some significant gains in the upcoming weeks. Sherrod Brown is simply too "crazy" when it comes to national security, and the nutroots are pushing his antiwar, anti-Bush views. Not good to the voters of Ohio, where the state resoundingly chose to reelect President Bush.
Rick Santorum's in serious trouble. He's behind by quite a bit, and he could lose his seat. This is one of the seats that we (I spoke with the kids last night) agree is a must-win to return a solid GOP leader to the Senate. But there's a distinct possibility that Santorum could lose his reelection bid. Bob Casey's got an 11 point average lead over Santorum right now, and that's a pretty tough road to hoe for Rick Santorum. Hopefully Rick can pull this out.
Chafee/Whitehouse? Chafee's going to lose. 'Nuff said. The McGavick/Cantwell race is going to be a close one, and it's one that a lot of people are calling it a toss-up. I'm apt to agree simply because neither is really gaining much against one another. This has been a close race from the start. And like the Santorum race, hopefully Mike McGavick can pull this off. He's made enough of an impact with Washington State voters already. With a little luck and hard work (and a contribution here) he could pull off an upset.
The Corker race in Tennessee is shaping up to be a make-or-break race. The GOP needs to hold onto this seat for a couple of reasons. First, it's Bill Frist's seat that is being given up. Second, a Democrat win here could signal the beginning of an ideological shift in the South. (No, I don't buy that assessment by the pundits. I don't think that these people have decided in two years it's time to turn on the GOP. If they were going to, they would have in 2004.) But the Democrats are banking on taking this seat from the GOP. They're going to need something more than Harold Ford, who is less than inept when it comes to representing his constituents. His family name is going to haunt him on election day where Tennesseeans remember that he's not fromt heir state. While he's been living there for a little while, I doubt the voters will trust him to represent them.
As things stand right now, the only contested race I see as a problem is the Santorum race (And you can can contribute here to help Rick win.) Now, I';ll give Rick Santorum credit for picking up the news of the day. His new ad is going to drill Bob Casey on amnesty for illegals on the day that the president has signed the border fence bill. And while Pennsylvania probably doesn't have the illegal immigration problem that border states have, he can tie the fence, the ineffective plan for immigration reform, and national security together, and hammer the nails into Bob Casey's political coffin. But he needs to campaign hard to win.
The key race that everyone should have been watching was the Allen/Webb race. The dirty tricks came out late in this race, and Jim Webb made the best attempts to take him down. Unfortunately, the Foley scandal didn;t help Webb. He went on the attack, but he was using the "bigot" argument against George Allen. Too bad Jim Webb doesn't know him the way the people of Virginia do. IF he did, why did Allen get the bump? Why is allen now into a double digit lead over Jim Webb. If Jim Webb thought he had George Allen on the ropes, he was mislead by his campaign cronies. He doesn't.
And now that there's about four weeks left in the election cycle, the Democrats are looking around, and wondering what happened. They were practically prophecied to retake both Houses. Their leaders promised them that this was a slam dunk. It's not looking that way now, and the Foley scandal might have just been the icing on the GOP's cake come November 8th. The Democrats took the opportunity of the Foley scandal to make some seriously slanderous comments regarding candidates and the party as a whole. And America watched, and shook its head.
I said it yesterday, and I'll say it again. Had the Democrats just kept quiet, the Foley scandal might have actually done some serious damage to the candidates this year. Instead, they let their frothing-at-the-mouth madness take hold, and they wrecked their October Surprise. Not surprising given how far the Democrats have slid to the left. Or were they pushed by the moonbat "nutroots?" Either way, this November isn't going to be a "rose garden" for the Democrats.
For the Democrats to win in November, the American voting public would have to lose it's brains somewhere. The Democrats have shown that when it comes to national security, they can't be trusted because of their efforts to curtail the programs that keep this nation safe. In addition, we would have to forget which side is calling for a withdrawal of troops from Iraq, and ultimately Afghanistan. (You can't deny that fact because if they take back both Houses, that will end up on their agenda soon enough.) We'd have to forget that the Democrats started camapigning for the House on the predisposition that when won, impeachment proceedings for President Bush and Vice President Cheney would begin, and Nancy Pelosi had a snowball's chance in H*ll of becoming president.
America's not stupid, and it's time for the Chicken Little pundits on the right to start remembering what they have said since the beginning of this year. The Democrats can't be trusted because they offer no viable solutions. They offer only vulnerability.
Sabrina McKinney
UPDATE: Dean Barnett over at Hugh's site points out something that emphasizes my point exactly. It seems that Harold Ford (running against Bob Corker in Tennessee) has just pulled a Patty Wetterling. We'll recall that Patty has this statement in a campaign ad:
It shocks the conscience. Congressional leaders have admitted to covering up the predatory behavior of a congressman who used the internet to molest children.
Harold Ford took it one step further today, and the moonbats are marching to the same beat, lock-step behind their man, right off the cliff like lemmings.
In TN, How does Harold Ford, Jr. beat back an NRSC ad that notes he once partied with Playboy bunnies?
Says Ford: "I'm not going to take a lecture on morality from a party that took hush money from a child predator."
Hush money? I do hope Mr. Ford has some evidence to back that up. If not, I hope he retracts that statement and makes an apology quickly. It's uncalled for, and a blatant lie.
Just remember, dear readers, that if the elections don't go their way in November, the nutroots who are in the driver's seat of the Democrat party are going to make 2008 one of the nastiest, most vitriolic races on record. They'll go beyond the current realm of dirty politics, and introduce the nation to a whole new brand of playing the game. They will only get worse. They'll get nuttier. They'll get meaner. And they'll be 100%, certifiably unhinged. I suggest we begin preparing now, because this attack strategy isn't working.
posted by Syd And Vaughn | 4:00 PM
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