Midterm Countdown: Two Days And Counting ....
The Washington Post tries to spin the newest polls, virtually "crowning" the Democrats the winners of the midterms, but even they admit a key fact that has some Democrats worried:
Two days before a bitterly fought midterm election, Democrats have moved into position to recapture the House and have laid siege to the Senate, setting the stage for a dramatic recasting of the power structure in Washington for President Bush's final two years in office, according to a Washington Post analysis of competitive races across the country.
In the battle for the House, Democrats appear almost certain to pick up more than the 15 seats needed to regain the majority. Republicans virtually concede 10 seats, and a split of the 30 tossup races would add an additional 15 to the Democratic column.
The Senate poses a tougher challenge for Democrats, who need to gain six seats to take control of that chamber. A three-seat gain is almost assured, but they would have to find the other three seats from four states considered to have tossup races -- Virginia, Tennessee, Missouri and Montana.
In governors' races, Democrats are likely to emerge with the majority for the first time in 12 years. Five states are almost certain to switch parties, including the key battlegrounds of New York, Massachusetts and Ohio. Four races are too close to call, but only one of those seats -- in Wisconsin -- is held by a Democrat.
A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows some narrowing in the Democratic advantage in House races. The survey gives the Democrats a six-percentage-point lead nationally among likely voters asked which party they prefer for Congress. It was 14 points two weeks ago, but this remains a larger advantage than they have had in recent midterm elections.
The surge the kids warned about in the latter part of last week has come to pass. So much so that even Lincoln Chafee has gained his first lead that I know of in his reelection bid. What is even more interesting to note in the contentious races is that it looks like the only seat that might switch sides is Rick Santorum's. That's a blow to the GOP, if he should lose because of how effective Santorum has been for the party in the Senate.
John Kyl and Joe Lieberman will retain their seats handily.
The Cardin/Steele race is within the margin of error with Ben Cardin leading by only three points--an easy task on election day for Michael Steele to take the seat with a solid GOTV campaign which is already in full swing.
Unless a miracle blesses Mike Bouchard, Debbie Stabenow will retain her seat, as well.
The same goes for Mark Kennedy against Amy Klobucher; she has a 14 point lead over him.
Claire McCaskill's "insurmountable" lead over Jim Talent has been reduced to one point, making the Missouri race a toss up. Unfortunately for her, the accusations in her attack ads on Jim Talent aren't sitting well with voters.
The same goes for Jon Tester against Conrad Burns in Montana, but then again, that race has bounced back and forth for some time with each having their seat atop the polls.
Somehow, thanks to the NJ media covering up his dirty dealings, Menendez is in the lead over Tom Kean by 8 points, but I'm thinking a surprise might wait the corrupt senator from New Jersey on election day.
The same goes for Sherrod Brown who holds only a six point lead over Mike DeWine. But DeWine's surge late in the week may be enough to give him the edge on election day.
Harold Ford's stupidity in the last fourteen days has killed his candidacy, and Bob Corker looks like he will make sure that retiring Senator Frist's seat will stay in GOP hands. And we should note this race because the Democrats had their hopes on taking this seat to show they can win in the South.
Jim Webb is int he lead by one measely point against George Allen. Despite all of Allen's mistaken endeavors to shoot himself in the foot, it appears that he could win on election day with this election now officially in The Asylum's toss-up column.
Miracles are going to be needed in Washington State if Mike McGavick is to win. He's being beaten by Maria Cantwell by 16 points.
Simply put, and I have to agree with the kids on this, any GOP candidate running for first-time Senate seats or reelection had to close the gap to no less than eight points to make something of election day. Four races are outside that margin right now (Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Washington). The others appear to either have a ground game race going right now, or they're in the dead heat category.
I'll stick with the kids on this one. Election day is going to bring us news that the Democrats have not retaken the Senate, that they've gained ground int he House, but still could not take the majority, and we are going to watch all the looney liberals get even more loonier than ever. As Thomas put it a couple of weeks ago, the term "unhinged" will become an understatement.
Sabrina McKinney
The Washington Post tries to spin the newest polls, virtually "crowning" the Democrats the winners of the midterms, but even they admit a key fact that has some Democrats worried:
Two days before a bitterly fought midterm election, Democrats have moved into position to recapture the House and have laid siege to the Senate, setting the stage for a dramatic recasting of the power structure in Washington for President Bush's final two years in office, according to a Washington Post analysis of competitive races across the country.
In the battle for the House, Democrats appear almost certain to pick up more than the 15 seats needed to regain the majority. Republicans virtually concede 10 seats, and a split of the 30 tossup races would add an additional 15 to the Democratic column.
The Senate poses a tougher challenge for Democrats, who need to gain six seats to take control of that chamber. A three-seat gain is almost assured, but they would have to find the other three seats from four states considered to have tossup races -- Virginia, Tennessee, Missouri and Montana.
In governors' races, Democrats are likely to emerge with the majority for the first time in 12 years. Five states are almost certain to switch parties, including the key battlegrounds of New York, Massachusetts and Ohio. Four races are too close to call, but only one of those seats -- in Wisconsin -- is held by a Democrat.
A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows some narrowing in the Democratic advantage in House races. The survey gives the Democrats a six-percentage-point lead nationally among likely voters asked which party they prefer for Congress. It was 14 points two weeks ago, but this remains a larger advantage than they have had in recent midterm elections.
The surge the kids warned about in the latter part of last week has come to pass. So much so that even Lincoln Chafee has gained his first lead that I know of in his reelection bid. What is even more interesting to note in the contentious races is that it looks like the only seat that might switch sides is Rick Santorum's. That's a blow to the GOP, if he should lose because of how effective Santorum has been for the party in the Senate.
John Kyl and Joe Lieberman will retain their seats handily.
The Cardin/Steele race is within the margin of error with Ben Cardin leading by only three points--an easy task on election day for Michael Steele to take the seat with a solid GOTV campaign which is already in full swing.
Unless a miracle blesses Mike Bouchard, Debbie Stabenow will retain her seat, as well.
The same goes for Mark Kennedy against Amy Klobucher; she has a 14 point lead over him.
Claire McCaskill's "insurmountable" lead over Jim Talent has been reduced to one point, making the Missouri race a toss up. Unfortunately for her, the accusations in her attack ads on Jim Talent aren't sitting well with voters.
The same goes for Jon Tester against Conrad Burns in Montana, but then again, that race has bounced back and forth for some time with each having their seat atop the polls.
Somehow, thanks to the NJ media covering up his dirty dealings, Menendez is in the lead over Tom Kean by 8 points, but I'm thinking a surprise might wait the corrupt senator from New Jersey on election day.
The same goes for Sherrod Brown who holds only a six point lead over Mike DeWine. But DeWine's surge late in the week may be enough to give him the edge on election day.
Harold Ford's stupidity in the last fourteen days has killed his candidacy, and Bob Corker looks like he will make sure that retiring Senator Frist's seat will stay in GOP hands. And we should note this race because the Democrats had their hopes on taking this seat to show they can win in the South.
Jim Webb is int he lead by one measely point against George Allen. Despite all of Allen's mistaken endeavors to shoot himself in the foot, it appears that he could win on election day with this election now officially in The Asylum's toss-up column.
Miracles are going to be needed in Washington State if Mike McGavick is to win. He's being beaten by Maria Cantwell by 16 points.
Simply put, and I have to agree with the kids on this, any GOP candidate running for first-time Senate seats or reelection had to close the gap to no less than eight points to make something of election day. Four races are outside that margin right now (Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Washington). The others appear to either have a ground game race going right now, or they're in the dead heat category.
I'll stick with the kids on this one. Election day is going to bring us news that the Democrats have not retaken the Senate, that they've gained ground int he House, but still could not take the majority, and we are going to watch all the looney liberals get even more loonier than ever. As Thomas put it a couple of weeks ago, the term "unhinged" will become an understatement.
Sabrina McKinney
posted by Syd And Vaughn | 1:05 PM
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